A Radical Guide to World Cup Matchups: The Quarterfinals

Predictions based on support for Palestinian liberation, the strength of democratic politics, who has the better music (that's subjective), and which country has the more humane immigration regime.

Of the eight teams in the quarterfinals, only four remain from the eight preferred by my Radical Odds: Morocco, France, Spain, and Belgium. The exit of the U.S. team (if we can only see the back of Alexi Lalas on TV too) leaves Argentina and Lionel Messi as the MAGA team. If the internet is to be believed, they are also FIFA President Infantino’s team.

The French sociologist Christian Bromberger once concluded after anthropological research among fans in Marseilles, Naples, and Turin, that football is “a caricatural melodrama, laying bare the major symbolic axes of our world.” He also called football “the most serious triviality in the world,” concluding that there is something liberating, deeply spiritual and potentially powerful in people gathering to watch the game. If football truly reflects the world in miniature, then the controversies that surround it —from perceptions of corruption in match officiating and displays of Ugly Americanism over red-card decisions to the influence of sponsors such as the odious Aramco (you can’t miss them at the start of a match when the team announcements are made) and the unequal treatment of countries like Iran and Haiti by the US while FIFA stays silent— can do more than provoke outrage. They can sharpen our sense of injustice and, perhaps, become catalysts for a more humane and democratic politics at a global level beyond the stadium.

As we move into the quarterfinals, the criteria remain the same: support for Palestinian liberation, the strength of democratic politics, who has the better music (admittedly, this is quite subjective), and which country has the more humane immigration and refugee policies.

If you are still unsure about how I got here: I have been keeping score since the start of the knockout rounds. Previous odds are archived here.

Morocco vs France: Penalties

On Palestine, it’s a tie. Officially, France recognizes the State of Palestine (an increasingly mainstream position outside the US), while Morocco maintains a close relationship with Israel through the Abraham Accords, security cooperation, and other ties. Despite this, France has a large colonial footprint in the Caribbean and the Pacific and often acts as though its former African colonies still belong to it. So, it is ironic that it is in opposition to colonialism in Palestine. On a much smaller scale, Morocco, meanwhile, occupies Western Sahara. Public support for Palestine is stronger and more consistent in Morocco, while France is more restrictive of pro-Palestinian activism.

France is a parliamentary democracy (even the left has a realistic chance of governing). Morocco is a constitutional democracy.

Morocco narrowly edges France on music (Google: “Gnawa” and “Randy Weston” for starters). Both have poor immigration systems, although France’s may be somewhat better (more legal protections and pathways to citizenship).

Spain vs Belgium: Spain

This is short and sweet. Spain is more democratic and too the left, has become the proxy team for Palestine, has better music, and has a more welcoming immigration and refugee system, Belgium’s diversity is more on display on the field: Two of its stars in this tournament are the children of Congolese immigrants: Yuri Tielemans and Romelo Lukako, whose goal rubbed in his team’s dominance of the USA in the Round of 32. Spain has Lamine Yamal, who if they get to the final may unveil the Palestine flag as he did after FC Barcelona won La Liga.

Norway vs England: Norway

As I said when England played the DRC, the UK (of which England is a part – figure this out) helped create modern Israel. It harasses and prosecutes Palestinian supporters and activists under public order laws or terrorism-related legislation, continues to supply arms to Israel, and its mainstream media, on the whole, helps sustain that political consensus. Whatever Norway’s policy on Palestine – its policy is broadly similar to France’s – has to be less odious.

Norwegian party politics also sits to the left of the UK’s. Nigel Farage could be Prime Minister next. Both countries have restrictive immigration regimes (although both teams, especially England, prominently feature the children of migrants), and England has better music.

Bonus ponts: Norway is the legend Daniel Levy’s dark horse, and they have Lise Klaveness as FA President.

Argentina vs Switzerland: Switzerland

As journalist Francesca Fiorentini reminds us, the politics of many of the Argentinians we see on the field or in the stands at the World Cup, is not everything about Argentina, especially of the many watching from home, like the rural campesinos, long traditions of opposition to neoliberalism and colonialism and the legacies of Diego Maradona or Javier Zanetti, The problem is that those opposing forces are not running the country right now or representing it; they’re in retreat. Argentina’s right-wing president, Javier Milei, is as hardline on Israel as the current US administration.

Switzerland, fake neutrality aside, can hardly do worse than Argentina on Israel. Swiss democracy is also stronger, although it is still bedeviled by racism. On that, Swiss national team player Manuel Akanji’s sister, Sarah, was, until 2023, an elected regional representative of the Greens and Social Democrats, but withdrew from public life after enduring racist and sexist threats.

Both countries have restrictive immigration regimes; Argentina more so recently. Argentina, at least, has better music. Finally, the whole world seems to be against Argentina now, after the Egypt game.